I am one for predictions. And betting. I want to put my money where the mouth is. It also gets people who sound cock-sure to reevaluate their belief.
I get some right. Then gloat when I get it right. This is not a place to gloat about them.
I am going to make another one. And I will pray to God that it doesn't happen.
I predict that in the next year, there will be at least one significant terrorist attack in Mumbai. I don't want to measure the significance in terms of number of deaths. But its a terrorist attack, so we are looking at atleast 5 innocent people dead(one can never underestimate the impact that a single life lost has).
THis will happen because in the last year, the situation in Pakistan has worsened considerably. And our politicians, police, intelligence etc, have just found excuses and reasons for absolving any responsibility for the Siege of Bombay.
Read Outlook special issue special issue. The response on the other side has been really pedestrian - what is needed is new processes, much advanced training (not just new vests), and better communication between various teams. There should have been a coherent action plan to tackle this - as far as I know this is none.
People will die.